by Todd Gross
If you're a new poker player, and want to improve your chances of winning money
(or at least losing less money), you don't want to rely on luck. Luck is unpredictable,
it can come or go at any time. You want to improve your odds of winning by making
good decisions: betting money when you have a good chance of winning the hand, and
folding when you don't. You need information to make good decisions.
One type of information is probability: what percent of the
time will a random event happen, like flopping a set (see
Poker Terms
for a definition) or having the best hand after all cards have been dealt.
In my last article,
Getting Off to a Good Start,
we looked at which starting hands
gave you the best chance of winning. This is probability: the odds that your two cards,
with the five community cards yet to be dealt, will create the best hand and win.
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Another type of information is statistics: what people actually
do in a given situation. For example, if you raise before the flop, statistics tells you
how often your opponent will call, will raise, and will fold. You don't get this information
from running computer simulations, because it's based on how people actually behave. You
get the information from watching people play and keeping track of their behavior.
In this article, we tell you how to get this valuable information
without having to
spend any money playing poker.
There are two parts to getting valuable statistical information about your opponents. First
you have to watch actual poker hands and keep track of what the players do: when they call,
when they bet or raise (and if it's a no-limit or pot-limit game, how much
they bet or raise), and when they fold. Then you have to take this information you've gathered
and analyze it, to find out what their behavior is. This article
is also divided into two parts. In this part, Part I, we look at how to gather information
from actual poker hands. In
Part II,
we'll take some poker hands I've collected and do a simple analysis to see how much money you're
likely to win if you take a pot (nice to know, right?).
How To Record Games
If you have an account with
PartyPoker,
you can look at a text record of any poker hand and save it to a file. We'll see what the contents
look like in a moment, right now I need to explain how to get this text record.
-
First, you need to log into your account at PartyPoker, then choose a table. The game
(or games) you record will be ones that are played at the table you choose while you're watching.
-
When you see a window of a specific table, look in the upper right hand corner. You should see
a line of white text that looks like the following:
This Hand# 1,393,734,690
After the first hand, you will see another line of text below it that looks like the following:
Last Hand# 1,393,732,684
Both of these are links. Click your mouse on either link, you get a window with the title
Request Hand History.
-
The Request Hand History window has two scrollable text areas. On the left side is a list
of numbers. These are hand numbersthe same numbers you saw in the
link you clicked to open this window. You can select any number with a green check next to it.
When you select the hand number (by clicking on the number), the right text area shows the hand
history for that specific hand.
-
You can read the contents of the hand history, you can also save a copy by cutting
and pasting. The easiest way to do this is to press CTRL-a then CTRL-c
in the hand history window to get a copy,
then press CTRL-v in a text editor like Notepad or Microsoft Word to copy the
hand history to your editor (which you can then save in a file for later use).
Contents of Recorded Games
Here is an actual hand history recorded from PartyPoker, except the players names were changed:
***** Hand History for Game 1252041001 *****
$0.5/$1 Hold'em - Thursday,
December 02, 22:49:52 EDT 2004
Table Rags To Riches (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 3: Player1 ( $36.87 )
Seat 7: Player2 ( $52.75 )
Seat 8: Player3 ( $61.5 )
Player2 posts small blind [$0.25].
Player3 posts big blind [$0.5].
** Dealing down cards **
PLAYERX has joined the table.
Player1 calls [$0.5].
Player2 calls [$0.25].
Player3 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6d, Jc, 3h ]
Player2 bets [$0.5].
Player3 folds.
Player1 calls [$0.5].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4c ]
Player2 bets [$1].
Player1 calls [$1].
** Dealing River ** [ 2d ]
Player2 checks.
Player1 checks.
Player2 shows [ 3d, 3s ] three of a kind, threes.
Player1 shows [ Ac, 6s ] a pair of sixes.
Player2 wins $4.5 from the main
pot with three of a kind, threes.
PLAYERY has joined the table.
As you can see, the hand history tells you:
- The game being played (in this case, Texas Hold'Em with 50¢
small bets and $1 large bets)
- The players at the table, and how much money they have
- Who posts the blinds (small and big)
- How each player acts in turn (call/check, raise, fold)
- The cards that are dealt on the flop, turn, and river
- Who wins the pot, and how much they win
In some cases, you also get to see the players' cards, but only
if (1) there are at least 2 players at the end of the hand (after
the river card is dealt and all bets are made), or (2)
they choose to show their cards. In this hand, you not only see
Player 2's cards (pair of 3s), you also see Player 1's
(A 6 offsuit) because both players were in the hand at the end.
Note that, in most cases, you don't get to see a player's hole cards.
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Now that we know how to record hands, and what information these recorded
hands contain, we can talk about how to get useful statistical information
about the players. In
Part II,
we use information from 100 different hands played at several different
tables and times to predict how large a pot we are likely to collect if
we win.